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Usually, the National Football League's Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple script. It frequently serves as a form of apology. Sorry we underestimated your franchise in our preseason projections.

On paper, it's a direct line: the skipper who orchestrated the biggest improvement receives the award. In reality, it fuels an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring superior leadership or just the biggest upset.

However the latest competition is fundamentally unique. The list of nominees is exceptionally deep. It has been the year of comebacks. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent division winners declining and longtime strugglers improving collectively. Under an ordinary season, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in such a wild and entertaining season, he's up against multiple other outstanding coaches.

Below is how the hypothetical vote could be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore QBs. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you transform a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected his young quarterback; he's freed him. Given a proper system, Williams has been afforded the chance to display his otherworldly ability. Since Week 9, the Bears rank number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's sustained excellence. With Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, far less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan instead of freelancing. It is an attack built entirely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action and a innovative aerial game that springs wide-open receivers all over the field. Williams has capitalized. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been able to create big plays out of nothing.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a specific offensive vision. Almost each decision – overhauling the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. That's rare for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who walked into the organization with the level of hype Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero sure things. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a scheme wizard but the type of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

During a ordinary year, he would be the runaway choice. But the current is not a typical year!

The area where his candidacy runs slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears currently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two victories worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is in place for sustained success. However Johnson falls short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's another rookie leader who has masterminded a rapid resurgence. During the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, he has mastered the intangibles aspects, which was not a certainty after his early public introduction and some of his preseason moves.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed themselves with the perfect coaching cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, Coen bet on newbies. From the leader on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That kind of approach is intriguing in theory, but often collapses in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a new job on the fly. Yet he has pulled everyone and everything together.

After an early hot beginning, there was a chance that the season would go off the track. A midseason setback caused the team wobbling once more. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. He didn't. Rather, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped chasing explosive plays and started seeking sustainable ones. The coach refocused the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and asked his QB to use his legs more.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. Coen receives the tiniest knock in the rankings because he took over a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year argument has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB move.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have derailed the campaign in October. Rather, it defined it. Through the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has fallen away since that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the season, placing him just one spot ahead of peers.

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